Fresh Air is an essential manual on marketing radio stations and the radio industry, by Mark Ramsey. Read the Black Friday for HD Radio
This week's Convergence conference in San Jose was a terrific gathering of broadcasters and their partners who feel radio's best days might very well lay ahead. No sticks in the mud, these. Rather, folks with brains and vision and a plan, or at least the hopes of developing one.
This was no place for spin doctors and conventional wisdom. So I was not surprised when Kurt Hanson spoke on radio's future with an emphasis on radio's inevitable future on the Internet.
Nor was I surprised when Kurt veered left to discuss - and dismiss - HD Radio.
What fascinated me was the reaction.
Any room full of broadcasters is full of HD radio doubters, nowadays. But the vibe in this room was remarkable for the eye-rolling and audible snickering that greeted virtually any mention of HD.
Kurt disassembled HD's premise by dividing the total number of radios now in circulation by the markets in which those radios live and other relevant assumptions (I did something like this a while back myself). He arrived at the conclusion that the average HD radio advertiser in any given market could reach more prospects by standing at the bottom of their driveway and handing out flyers.
In a panel session immediately following Kurt's, the lone iBiquity spokesman filibustered on his talking points, spitting one after the next, but the effort seemed surprisingly desperate. You could almost hear the sweat forming on his brow as he reiterated his case, oblivious to the thrashing that had just occurred.
Although he described himself as Kurt Hanson's "evil twin," the feeling in the room was that he was at least half right.
It left me feeling that a corner had been turned. That broadcasters understood new media presented scores of new opportunities, few of which had anything to do with selling newfangled radios to consumers who don't want or need them.
This should create great hope for those of us in radio: Hope that good ideas really will rise to the top. Hope that we're too smart to be taken in by pyramid schemes. Hope that those with a vested interest will be revealed for what they are. Hope that those with the interests of broadcasters and listeners and clients at heart will create the kind of future those constituencies demand and deserve.
All along, HD radio was designed as the industry's counterpunch to XM and Sirius. As the satellite titans near a merger (which I do believe will happen and could come any day now) in order to save themselves, as satellite's control over one pocket in the dashboard accelerates, as another pocket opens up for all-things-Internet, HD radio will rapidly dim into obsolescence like the technological also-rans which preceded it.
All technology is transitional, but some never make it to the transition.
In this new media world, opportunities are actually less about "convergence" than about emergence. Chaotic storms of passion bring audiences together. Their whims and tools and discussions allow them to take the driver's seat. We are and always will be in service to them.
HD radio was always about what the industry wants, not about what consumers want. That's why it was doomed to fail from the start.
And, unless there's some remarkable consolation prize embedded into the satellite radio merger decision, that day shall be Black Friday for HD radio.
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"And, unless there's some remarkable consolation prize embedded into the satellite radio merger decision, that day shall be Black Friday for HD radio... HD radio was always about what the industry wants, not about what consumers want. That's why it was doomed to fail from the start."
Wow Mark, you could have blown me over with a feather!
As for the satrad merger, doubtful that any consolation would be something that iBiquity, or the radio industry, could afford:
"Ibiquity Publishes Proposed Rule For Merger"
"This represents $100’s of millions of dollars if the premium is only $10 per chipset. How much is the premium in reality? $20? $30? This information is needed to consider exactly what is being placed on the table by Ibiquity. Ibiquity is looking for such a concession so that they will no longer have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars, and negotiate with OEM partners. While seeing exactly what their proposal seeks is helpful, there are still more answers that are needed. Taking away hudreds of millions of dollars in synergies is not a viable answer at this point."
http://siriusbuzz.com/ibiquity-publishes-proposed-rule-for-merger.php
This only affects satrad receivers that receive analog AM/FM, and would affect OEM in-dash receivers in three years. Of course, satrad has been unsuccessfully working on interoperable receivers since 2000, and the cost for these new receivers would be considerable. Orbitcast had a good article on this recently.
Perhaps, all HD radios should be required to carry satrad, also.
Posted by: PocketRadio | March 13, 2008 at 05:41 PM
Talk of HD for me at the conference was similar. I heard people openly regretting that door prizes consisted of HD units instead of mobile devices.
Talk of HD reminds me of the 4 initiatives pushed recently by the NAB with great fanfare, which I am sure we all have memorized. In case it slipped, they are roughly:
1) Make radio portable again.
2) Create more consumer options.
3) Address on-demand capabilities.
4) Re-ignite the consumer.
I think HD is David Rehr's walking out of this list, because otherwise they would be calling me. We fulfill the first 3 items. As for igniting people, I have not figured out a way to credibly put that into our business plan, but an open to input.
Posted by: Andrew Deal | March 14, 2008 at 03:35 PM
Hi Mark...
WOW somebody is finally getting it...all of your comments and those made at the meeting are right on target!!! I have been saying this since day one even before we found out that HD doesnt even work,no decent FM coverage and AM that kills the band..) I wont repeat all the good "correct comments" that were stated by those who say HD is what it is, a terriable mistake! I will say this, no matter what the marketplace will always decide (it has decided allready despite thousands and thousands of ads on the most powerful media..radio.. our own airways) I also believe as a lifelong radio guy if the radio world today was comprized of owners like we had, before the corporations were a factor, individuals who knew radio and loved it , HD would have never ever gotten off the ground to embarrase us all. Only because of big corporations did we get to the point where we find ourselves today,good operators would have said this in not a good plan would not have chosen to invest the millions of dollars and only a small number would have jumped on board the HD wagon. Might be interesting to see how many real broadcasters are broadcasting in HD?
Lets all hope that all across the country HD is turned off and that the quality of our bands return with great analog, why analog? because it can at this very moment be picked up by millions and millions of radios...nothing else is needed except good programing giving listeners a reason to turn them on...this will also give us the opportunity to focus our radio on what we already have to make it better and viable in 2008 and quit focusing on something we are attempting to make happen against the maketplace desires...the focus should turn immediately to making the internet our other platform of delivery of great radio..it is the future!
I proudy operate WNNC and WAIZ Hickory NC and WXRC..95.7fm THE RIDE..on line at 957theride.com Charlotte NC...
Dave Lingafelt
Posted by: Dave Lingafelt | March 15, 2008 at 03:22 AM
I hope the HD FUBAR is nearly done for. It is just another distraction from the real issues (and solutions) that radio faces. As I said when the HD Alliance was announced, "One word: QUAD."
Posted by: Bugfish | March 15, 2008 at 01:52 PM
Aside from the good intentions of IBOC/HD radio, it is hard to get it to go over when the receivers typically cost about $200, let alone there are not many on the market - yet. I feel once the price point drops to less than $100 and more become available, will it take off. Most folks cannot afford them, even I. And I am a radio enthusiast.
New receivers in home theater and cars should have the new technology built in.
Moreover, there are the interference problems, adjacent channel interference in conventional analog reception mode that plague the AM and FM bands. The hash is terrible and receiving weaker stations have been diminished tremendously.
They have to find a way to have your cake and eat it, too.
Posted by: Paul R. Feldstein | March 16, 2008 at 12:13 PM
HD on the AM band is nothing short of a high-priced disaster that makes money for companies that are pushing this technology . Even if I WANTED to put out $200 for one of these radios , I wouldn't be able to listen to my local 50KWers while I travel around the city . Interference -fading - & the annoying receiver jumping from analog to digital !
I'll never understand WHY the PRO-DIGITAL companies didn't work together with the FCC as well as the radio station owners to open up a DIGITAL RADIO BAND . They could use a wider bandwith to produce some kind of workable signal.
Once they have this figured out , they could form a partnership with the radio station owners to run SPECIAL
programming of sports , concerts , & other EXCITING programs . Also LOCAL programming would be a plus , because your average radio listener considers most syndicated programming to be with questionable (CRAP) content with too many commercials ! Perhaps the manufacurers can couple these expensive radios with rebates or other goodies ! After the new DIGITAL BAND takes off with Quality programming ther would be many $$$$ to be made for EVERYONE ! !
AAH -- but maybe the digital people wanted their mony NOW !
Just MAYBE they don't CARE if IBOC is around in 10yrs !
LJK
Posted by: Lester | March 16, 2008 at 06:19 PM
The problem HD is trying to solve is accurate, and the initiatives from NAB, echoed by RAB are right on, but HD itself is just not the right solution. Cell phones are.
Posted by: Andrew Deal | March 16, 2008 at 07:13 PM
@Feldstein:
"Aside from the good intentions of IBOC/HD radio, it is hard to get it to go over when the receivers typically cost about $200, let alone there are not many on the market - yet. I feel once the price point drops to less than $100 and more become available, will it take off. Most folks cannot afford them, even I. And I am a radio enthusiast."
"Are you waiting in line for your HD radio?"
"If you lower the price enough, folks will buy the radio. That's the belief about HD radio that is being stoked in our industry. And, of course, it's wrong."
http://www.hear2.com/2006/11/are_you_waiting.html
You missed one of Mark's posts.
Posted by: PocketRadio | March 17, 2008 at 08:39 AM
@Lester:
"After the new DIGITAL BAND takes off with Quality programming ther would be many $$$$ to be made for EVERYONE!!"
This was tried elsewhere, but digital radio is failing all around the world:
"DAB Struggling to be Heard"
http://hdradiofarce.blogspot.com/2007/12/digital-radio-struggling-to-be-heard.html
The UK had even put rather-compelling content on the digital channels, but consumers opted for iPods, Internet Radio, analog FM, etc., instead.
Posted by: Greg | March 17, 2008 at 08:45 AM
Wait-- the future IS here. Digital "radio" -IS the internet. Thank you.
Posted by: Dave Mason | March 18, 2008 at 11:50 AM